Throughout the 2022 redistricting cycle, we'll be providing a few quick updates on important mapmaking developments in each state. Be sure to visit our "Road Map to Redistricting" for an overview of who controls the process and links to our baseline analysis in each state.
September 15, 2021
This week, the Democrats and Republicans on New York's new ten-member bipartisan advisory commission are expected to release competing initial draft maps. Per sources, these proposals are likely to be fairly compact and mild gerrymanders at best. But because New York's Democratic legislature can modify or ignore the commission's proposals, it's likely Democrats will ultimately pursue something more aggressive.
Democrats were thrilled by the detailed census data released in August, which showed more robust-than-expected growth in New York City. The state is losing a seat overall, but the numbers showed that loss concentrated Upstate: all territory north of Westchester and Rockland counties has enough population for 9.2 seats, down from 9.9 seats in 2010 - which should make it even easier for Democrats to axe an Upstate GOP seat.
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.