Republicans' Biggest Redistricting Weapon: Florida

October 8, 2021

The Sunshine State has recently looked more like a dark wasteland for Democrats. In 2018, while Democrats were romping elsewhere, Republicans defied polls to eke out the governor's race and pick up a Senate seat. In 2020, Donald Trump carried the state by three points thanks to vast gains among Cuban and other Hispanic voters, and Republicans expanded their dominance in the state legislature.

But the worst for Democrats may be yet to come: Florida, set to gain a 28th seat next year, could be Republicans' biggest redistricting weapon of the 2022 cycle. In fact, the GOP could erase most of Democrats' thin House majority in Florida alone.

Florida's process isn't expected to begin in earnest until January, when the legislature convenes in regular session. But already, Republicans are buzzing that they could convert their current 16R-11D advantage in the delegation to as lopsided as 19R-9D — potentially their biggest haul of the cycle. The main reason? Unlike other large states Republicans control — such as Texas, Ohio and Georgia — the current map isn't already a strong GOP

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