The recent decision by the Supreme Court to hear the Texas redistricting case has Democrats gloating about another potential set-back for the architect of the 2003 remap – former Majority Leader Tom DeLay. It also helps to give Democrats some more ammunition as they try to build their case for a Republican “culture of corruption.” But, even if the Supreme Court ultimately decides to throw out the 2003 map, Democrats will be hard pressed to pick up the five seats they lost in 2004. In fact, any victory by Democrats in the Supreme Court is more likely to be psychological than tangible.
In its analysis of the possible scenarios involving the Texas court case, the Lone Star Project, a Democratic group headed by Matt Angle, a former top aide to then-Democratic Rep. Martin Frost, notes that if the Supreme Court rules the plan is illegal based on improper mid-decade redistricting it would be likely that the previous Court-drawn plan from 2002 would be reinstated. Under the lines drawn in 2002, Democrats had 17 seats to 15 seats for the Republicans.
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