Three GOP Seats at Severe Risk in Virginia Democrats’ Redistricting Push

Earlier this year, it looked like Republicans were poised to double or triple the size of their thin cushion in the House by launching a mid-decade redistricting war. But they may have had a blind spot: the extent to which Democrats could push to set aside anti-gerrymandering constitutional amendments in blue states to fight back.

Now, if Virginia joins California in adopting a Democratic gerrymander to eliminate GOP seats, Republicans’ push to redraw district lines for 2026 could yield them little to no net benefit — or even backfire, in the event the Supreme Court upholds a three-judge panel’s ruling blocking Texas’s new map from taking effect.

There’s a ton of upside for Democrats in the Old Dominion. They won a robust state-level trifecta earlier this month, but Republicans still hold five of 11 House seats owing to a neutral map imposed by the Virginia Supreme Court in 2022 after the state’s new bipartisan redistricting commission deadlocked. With a few line changes, Democrats could easily flip seats held by GOP Reps. Rob Wittman (VA-01), Jen Kiggans (VA-02) and John McGuire