The race you couldn't make up if you tried has, admittedly, left us with a ratings conundrum. Former Gov. Mark Sanford's startlingly low personal standing with voters following news of his trespassing charge suggests he's simply unelectable. Yet, South Carolina's 1st District is six points more Republican than each of Richard Mourdock's Indiana and Todd Akin's Missouri, and three private polls taken for Democratic groups in the past week continue to depict a very close race in which Elizabeth Colbert Busch has yet to pull away.
Last week, Sanford's goofy antics, between his infamous rambling "Remember the Alamo" newspaper plea and his sidewalk appearance with a cardboard cutout of Nancy Pelosi, were the hallmark of a desperate candidate whose advisers had left the building. Colbert Busch was already tied or slightly ahead, and Sanford's off-the-rails behavior seemed likely to compound his existing problems and cause many already-unenthusiastic GOP voters to stay home. Accordingly, we moved our rating of the race to Lean Democratic.
Since last week, Sanford's campaign has stabilized somewhat. Although Sanford didn't land any major punches against Colbert
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.