New Morning Consult/Bloomberg News polling released on Thursday showed former President Trump 4 points ahead of President Biden, 47 to 43 percent, in the seven swing states generally expected to determine the outcome of next year’s presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. A total of 5,023 registered voters were interviewed in the seven states between Oct. 5 and 10.
The 4-point Trump advantage appeared both in a two-way trial heat and a four-way matchup including Green Party and No Labels candidates. Specifically, Trump was up 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and North Carolina, 2 points in Wisconsin, and 1 point in Pennsylvania. Michigan was dead even, while Biden had a 3-point lead in Nevada.
The seven swing states have a total of 94 Electoral College votes. Biden carried all but North Carolina in his 306-to-232-vote victory in 2020, a reversal of the results four years earlier.
A separate national poll of 5,000 registered voters by Morning Consult taken a week later (Oct. 13-15) with similar methodology showed Biden ahead by 2 points, 43
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