In reviewing the results of the NBC News poll released Sunday, I am reminded of how important it is to distinguish between wishful thinking and objective analysis, particularly when it comes to a figure as polarizing as former President Trump.
These days we hear a lot of smart, experienced, and usually wise political pros predicting either that Trump will be overtaken in his bid to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, or that if nominated, Trump has no chance of winning a general election. In many cases, they have a thinly disguised, if disguised at all, personal animus to Trump, which, I think, colors their analysis.
I disagree with both of these propositions regarding the nomination and general election. There are few if any meaningful signs that Trump’s grip on the GOP nomination is loosening. If the 45th president is nominated again, the case that he cannot win a general election seems to ignore both President Biden’s own vulnerabilities and the simple fact that the Democratic vote is so inefficiently spread out. Democrats “waste” votes by running up the
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.