When it comes to making predictions about 2016, there are lots of important numbers to follow. The unemployment rate. Consumer confidence. The president’s approval rating. The horse race polls. But, in my mind, the most important data point to follow is the one which measures Americans’ desire to stay the current course or try a different one in 2016. History tells us that the odds of a Clinton presidency are long. In the modern era (well, really since Andrew Jackson in 1836), no Democrat has succeeded a 2-term Democratic president. And, George H.W. Bush’s win in 1988 was the first time since 1904 that a Republican had succeeded a 2-term Republican. In good times and bad, Americans seem predisposed to vote for the “out” party after an eight year run by the other one. And, for as much as Hillary Clinton will try and distance herself from the current Administration, her party label alone is going to make that tough to do. That said, every election is unique and perceptions of the candidates, the environment and the issues are dynamic.

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