Bad political environments tend to produce surprises. An incumbent who was sitting on a cushy 20-point lead just three weeks ago discovers that his race has snapped shut and he is suddenly in a very competitive fight for re-election. Such is the case for first-term Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss.
A Public Opinion Strategies poll for the Chambliss campaign (September 8-11 of 800 likely voters) showed the incumbent leading his Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Jim Martin, 52 percent to 33 percent. Then, a poll for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by the Mellman Group (September 24-28 of 600 likely voters) had Chambliss at 37 percent and Martin at 34 percent. Chambliss’ job ratings were 27 percent “excellent/good” to 37 percent “fair/poor.” Mellman does not tend to ask undecided voters whether they lean toward one candidate or the other, which accounts for the high percentage of undecided voters in the survey.
Days later, a Research 2000 poll taken for Daily Kos (September 29-October 1 of 600 likely voters) showed a statistical dead heat with Chambliss at 45 percent and Martin at
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