After shifting three Senate ratings last week — Pennsylvania in Democrats' direction, Colorado in Republicans' direction and the Utah race toward an independent candidate — we're taking a quick look at where all the other competitive races stand. Democrats' standing has improved over the past few months in most of these races. However, with the races fully engaging post-Labor Day and rescue money coming in to bail out weak GOP nominees from superPACs, we expect them to tighten once again.
Here we elaborate on each of the races not rated Solid — from the most to least competitive right now (though some of these differences are granular) — apart from Pennsylvania, which we think is the most likely contest overall to flip control. And though we moved Colorado and Utah last week, Utah at Likely Republican would be at the bottom of the list, while the Lean Democrat Colorado race would probably be on par with Florida.
While Pennsylvania is the most likely contest to flip parties as of now, Nevada isn't far behind it.
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.