Just over two weeks removed from Election Day — and with two mammoth Georgia runoffs still outstanding — it’s far too early to handicap the 2022 Senate map. We don’t fully know if it will be a Democratic or Republican majority to defend. Either way, it’s one that will be very closely split.

But the upcoming midterm cycle is where Republicans could find themselves again far more on defense. Without counting Georgia — with either GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler or Democrat Raphael Warnock seeking a full term after having won a special election — there are 21 Republican-held seats compared to 13 Democratic ones.

But in midterms, of course, the president’s party typically loses seats during his first term in office. In fact, Republicans have netted Senate seats in almost every midterm election dating back to 1994 (1998 saw no change, and Democrats added six seats and flipped the Senate in 2006). That included in 2002, President George W. Bush’s first midterm elections, but the GOP and Bush were still benefiting from a rally around the flag moment

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