With only three weeks to go before the November 6 election, most observers of Congressional elections are still uncertain as to the likely outcome.Though the first Presidential debate apparently slowed GOP momentum in House races, Republican tracking polls show that the impact of the debate was to slow down gains of many GOP challengers rather than cause many to actually drop. The most likely net House outcome at this point is a Republican gain of 12 to 37 seats. Democrats are starting to breathe a little easier now that Mondale is doing a little better. Business PAC contributions to GOP challengers were very heavy in September, according to early FEC reports, perhaps making up for a slower and smaller contribution pattern through Spring and Summer, Most business PACs appear to be largely tapped out according to some fundraisers we talked with. Labor has a cash reserve ready for late-breaking races, we are told.

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