Alaska Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy must battle for re-election in the state’s new top-four primary, ranked-choice voting system this fall. Dunleavy is facing off against his predecessor, former independent Gov. Bill Walker, but still looks like the favorite for re-election and is expected to finish first in voting on Tuesday. Because of the new voting method and Walker’s presence on the ballot, we changed our rating in February to Likely Republican and did a more extensive look at the recent elections featuring both Dunleavy and Walker. We are still keeping that rating for now, though Dunleavy has many things putting him in a stronger position than earlier this year.

While Dunleavy initially faced backlash in office for tax cuts to the state ferry system and the university system budgets, his numbers have rebounded over the past 18 months once he backtracked on those drastic proposals, and high oil prices have helped stabilize the state’s budget. He does face criticism from candidates on his right, notably state Rep. Christopher Kurka, on his handling of COVID, even though Dunleavy didn’t enact

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