With just 11 gubernatorial races on the ballot this year, the range of seats truly in play was never going to be very large.
Looking back at our ratings at the beginning of 2020, only two were in competitive categories — the Montana open seat in Toss Up with North Carolina and Gov. Roy Cooper in Lean Democrat. Democrats had also hoped to unseat the two Northeastern Republican governors in New Hampshire and Vermont, with those in the Likely Republican category.
Now, just over a week from Election Day there are only two seats we are keeping in our competitive categories — Montana still as the lone Toss Up, and Missouri in the Lean Republican column, which has been the surprise of the cycle after it began in the Solid category before we moved it twice this year toward, ultimately to its current place last month.
But one of those original races in the competitive category is now moving — North Carolina from Lean to Likely Democrat, with Cooper now the clear favorite to win a second
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