As Republicans in federal midterm contests have seen their political fortunes rise with just 11 days until Election Day, there is also a sense of optimism for gubernatorial races.

The current national split is 28 Republican governors to 22 Democratic ones. Republicans are defending the bulk of the 36 seats up for election — 20 GOP-held to 16 for Democrats. Two Republican open seats are all but sure to flip to Democrats in Massachusetts and Maryland, bringing it to near parity at 26 Republican and 24 Democratic.

There are only two other GOP-held seats we rate as vulnerable. The open Arizona race is in Toss Up, and polling shows it remains close — but Republicans are feeling much better about their candidate Kari Lake’s chances over Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who has proven to be an underwhelming candidate. Lake is an election conspiracy theorist, but she is a strong campaigner and still has the trust of many voters after two decades as a Phoenix local news anchor.

Democrats were optimistic about Stacey Abrams’s rematch with Georgia

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