In our initial analysis of the Kentucky Governor contest in January 2023, we wrote that Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear “starts out with the edge to win a second term” thanks to his “strong approval ratings,” and that even “Republican sources in the state admit that Beshear will not be easy to beat.”

Ten months later, that assessment still largely rings true, as does our Lean Democrat rating.

Despite being the Democratic governor who represents the most Republican state in the country, Beshear heads into Tuesday’s Election Day with the advantage over his GOP challenger, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. A win would prove that, at least at the state level, some voters are still willing to set aside partisan loyalties, and that local political issues still have resonance.

We aren’t saying that we don’t expect the final result to be close. By emphasizing his endorsement from former President Donald Trump, many Republican voters and undecideds may close for Cameron at the end. In fact, a one-to-two point victory for Beshear is very possible. But our final rating doesn’t necessarily reflect

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