Republicans were dealt a huge blow at the beginning of December when Gov. Charlie Baker announced he wouldn’t seek a third term. Although he denied the fact that former President Trump endorsing his far-right primary opponent, former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, factored into his decision, national Republicans still believe that if Trump had not taken aim at yet another GOP governor he disagreed with that Baker would still be running and in the driver's seat to re-election.

Instead, the open seat contest has now become Democrats’ best pickup opportunity on the map. When Baker announced his decision – and his Lt. Gov. Karen Polito also passed on running – we initially put this race in the Lean Democrat column to wait and see how both primaries, particularly the GOP one, would shape up. Three months later, it’s clear that Republicans are headed toward having an unelectable nominee in Diehl while Democratic Attorney General Maura Healy is the clear frontrunner for both the primary and the general election.

Diehl has continued to tie himself to Trump in a state

More from the Cook Political Report

GOP won the votes, but not the seats
National Politics
Photo of Charlie Cook