It seems more than a little counterintuitive to rate a Democratic Governor in solid blue Massachusetts as anything but an overwhelming favorite for re-election. As such, this race has been in the Solid Democratic column since the beginning of the cycle, despite Gov. Deval Patrick’s dismal poll numbers.
In truth, it was easy to assume that the vulnerable Patrick would get a competitive primary challenge that he probably wouldn’t survive. That scenario appeared to be playing out as state Treasurer Tim Cahill geared up to challenge Patrick for the nomination. To the surprise of most political observers, however, Cahill has decided to change his party affiliation to independent to make a gubernatorial bid next year. At this point, no other Democrat has announced a primary bid.
Republicans also got the candidate they wanted in Harvard Pilgrim Health CEO Charlie Baker, though he faces a primary challenge from Christy Mihos, who ran in 2006 as an independent and took 7 percent of the vote.
Patrick’s poll numbers are indeed weak. A University of New Hampshire survey for the Boston Globe (July
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