Silver State in Focus: Nevada Governor Moves to Lean Democrat

October 5, 2021

Nevada is a legitimate swing state, albeit one that has a slightly blue tinge over the past few election cycles. But that hue will be tested in 2022, with top Senate and gubernatorial races in the state where Democratic incumbents will be impacted if their party's numbers nationwide continue to flounder.

Earlier this summer, we moved first-term Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto into our competitive column, rating her race as Lean Democrat now. She's anticipated to face 2018 gubernatorial nominee Adam Laxalt. Recent polling and conversations with sources in the Silver State show that Gov. Steve Sisolak's re-election effort deserves a re-evaluated and more competitive rating. We are moving the race from Likely to Lean Democrat. Non-party voters, or independents, will make up the largest bloc in all contests, and the registration is nearly evenly split three ways across: 35.2% non-major party voters, 34.5% Democratic voters and 30.3% Republican voters, according to the most recent registration numbers.

New polling this weekend unveiled by The Nevada Independent, conducted for the news site by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, showed Sisolak

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