Three-way election contests are a tricky thing. A well-funded third-party candidate can often play spoiler, allowing the minority party even in a state that largely leans to the opposite party to sneak through a win. Such are the dynamics playing out in the open Oregon gubernatorial race, giving Republicans an increasingly plausible opportunity, even though the state last elected a GOP governor in 1982. As such, we are shifting our rating from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat.
The one non-partisan public poll for Nelson Research (May 25-27) since the May 17 primary shows a tight race, with former Republican state House minority leader Christine Drazan narrowly leading with 30 percent, Democratic former state House Speaker Tina Kotek a statistically insignificant two points behind at 28 percent, and Betsy Johnson, a Democrat-turned independent state senator, at 19 percent. Other private and partisan polls show a similar trajectory, and Democrats admit this is a race they must pay attention to in a state that President Biden won by 16 points. This is also a likely first historically, with three women all
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.