We had intended our previous handicapping of the state legislatures on Oct. 28 to be our last one of the cycle. But then Texas voters came out to vote. And vote. And vote. And now, just five days later, we have one adjustment to make: We’re moving the Texas House from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
All year, we had considered the Texas House to be in play, but with an edge to the GOP. Now, with enormous turnout banked in large-population counties — the types of places where Democrats have been gaining ground in the Lone Star State — we’ve decided to make a last-minute reconsideration. It’s an important rating shift not just for the future policy implications of a Democratic takeover, but also because it would give Democrats a seat at the redistricting table after the 2020 Census reapportionment.
Democrats need to flip nine seats to take the chamber majority, assuming the party keeps all their current seats. The final installment of the venerable seat-by-seat analysis by Rice University’s Mark P. Jones shows that Democrats can accomplish
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