Research Associate Matthew Klein contributed to this report.
After decades of backsliding, Golden State Republicans have enjoyed two strong cycles in a row. They held just seven of the state's 53 seats coming off of 2018, but clawed back in both 2020 and 2022 and now hold 12 of 52 seats. Their wins in five highly competitive 2022 contests — including Reps. John Duarte (CA-13) and David Valadao (CA-22) in the Central Valley and three in greater Los Angeles and Orange County — helped propel Kevin McCarthy to the speakership.
As a consequence, Republicans now hold five Biden-won California districts, including three he carried by double digits in 2020: the 13th, 22nd and 27th. Democrats are counting on higher Latino turnout in 2024 to wrest these seats back, and pledging to spend more after the DCCC and House Majority PAC didn’t end up spending in several of them in 2022. But Republicans are also targeting Democratic Rep. Katie Porter's open Orange County 47th CD.
The Senate race has already spawned two safe Democratic open seats: Rep. Barbara Lee’s Oakland
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