The yet-to-be scheduled special election to replace Rep. Duke Cunningham - who tearfully announced his resignation from Congress this week after pleading guilty to bribery charges - will provide Democrats with their first opportunity to test their “culture of corruption” message for 2006. Democrats argue that voters in this San Diego-based district are particularly receptive to this message given the steady diet of local scandals they have been fed for the last year or so, including a city employee pension scandal that has the fund $1.4 billion in debt. Plus, Democrats seem to have coalesced around one candidate, 2004 nominee and Cardiff School board member Francine Busby, while Republicans have a very crowded primary.
Republicans have an inherent registration advantage in the district. Republican registration is 44 percent – 14 points higher than the Democratic voter registration. 22 percent of voters are registered as “Decline to State”. President Bush took 55 percent of the vote here in 2004 – almost 10-points higher than he did statewide. The district has a PVI of R+5, meaning that the district votes five-points
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