Two weeks after Super Tuesday, California still isn't done counting all its ballots. But with more than 8.8 million votes tallied and only about 725,000 ballots left to process, it's fair to start drawing some conclusions. We're shifting our ratings in four races, most notably in the May 12 runoff in the 25th CD to replace former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, where Republicans have some renewed optimism.
CA-21: Cox - Lean D to Toss Up
CA-25: VACANT - Likely D to Lean D
CA-45: Porter - Lean D to Likely D
CA-49: Levin - Likely D to Solid D
CA-21: T.J. Cox (D) — Central Valley: Hanford, parts of Bakersfield Toss Up. Cox pulled off one of the biggest upsets of 2018 when late-counted ballots put him ahead by 862 votes, even after the AP had mistakenly called the race for GOP Rep. David Valadao. Now Valadao, a pro-immigration reform dairy farmer who had held this 74 percent Hispanic seat since 2012, is seeking a rematch, and Republicans are confident there's ample new Cox
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.