Research Associate Matthew Klein contributed to this report.

In 2021, Colorado’s newly-installed Independent Redistricting Commission — made up of four Democrats, four Republicans and four unaffiliated citizens — hammered out a compromise map that made the state’s new 8th District a Biden +4 “fair fight” seat in the northern Denver suburbs. Some Democrats were upset that the plan gave Republicans a chance to win four of eight seats in a state that’s rapidly trended blue. But in the end, a surprising blue wave in Colorado allowed Democrat Yadira Caraveo to win the 8th District by a point and helped Democrat Adam Frisch come within 546 votes of ousting rebellious GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert in the 3rd District.

Republicans can take heart that they still hold three seats, a stronger share than if voters hadn’t passed a redistricting reform amendment in 2018 and Democratic legislators were able to gerrymander them into oblivion. But Frisch, backed by a national army of small donors, is seeking a rematch against Boebert in 2024. Meanwhile, Republicans will certainly target Caraveo, though it’s not yet clear

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