Research Associate Matthew Klein contributed to this report.

Connecticut hasn’t elected a Republican to federal office since 2006, but that streak came within 2,004 votes of being broken in 2022 when GOP former state Sen. George Logan nearly toppled Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes in the northwestern 5th District. Republicans are likely to target Hayes again in 2024, and her weakened image from the last bruising race makes the 5th District by far their best pickup opportunity in the state.

Technically, Connecticut’s new congressional map was drawn by a court-appointed special master. But it’s a “least-change” version of the last two decades’ plans that Republicans gripe is really a Democratic gerrymander from 2002. If the leafy, “Rockefeller Republican” 5th District didn’t awkwardly reach into the gritty Democratic cities of New Britain and Meriden, Hayes probably would have lost reelection in 2022.

CT-01: John B. Larson (D) - Central: Hartford, Bristol Solid Democrat. The 74-year-old Larson hasn’t faced a serious primary challenge in his congressional career, but that doesn’t mean he’s in the clear. He termed out of his Democratic leadership

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