Just five years ago, Democrats were highly competitive in Florida’s House races, narrowing Republicans’ edge in the delegation to 14R-13D in 2018 with the aid of a court-imposed map. But today, the Sunshine State is an uncompetitive wasteland: in 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis prevailed on his own party’s legislative leaders to pass a gerrymander that obliterated Democratic-leaning seats in North Florida, the Orlando suburbs and St. Petersburg and carved out the state’s new census-awarded seat for a top GOP ally in the Tampa suburbs. The result is a lopsided 20R-8D delegation — a four seat gain from 2020 that proved decisive in making Kevin McCarthy speaker.

To make matters worse for Democrats, their party has virtually collapsed among Cuban voters in South Florida and they’ve seen their support erode among non-Cuban Hispanic voters as well. That’s put the Miami area seats of GOP Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27) and Carlos Giménez (FL-28) out of Democrats’ reach for now, even though both seats voted strongly for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Republicans are even taking a more serious look at targeting Rep.

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