As DC journalists and ads inundate St. Petersburg for the final stretch of the March 11 special election between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly, numbers are flying everywhere. According to the Tampa Bay Times's Alex Leary, total spending has hit $8.2 million, with Sink and Democrats leading Jolly and Republicans $4.6 to $3.6 million, including a new $350,000 ad buy from the League of Conservation Voters and Sierra Club to hit Jolly on climate change.
Then there's publicly available polling, which is contradictory. A mid-February Tampa Bay Times poll showed Sink leading Jolly 42 percent to 35 percent, while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (supporting Jolly) just pushed back with a poll taken February 17-18 by Fabrizio, Lee, and Associates showing Jolly in front within the margin of error, 44 percent to 42 percent. But keep in mind: this election isn't taking place on one day in March, it's a month-long marathon.
The most important metric to identify a front-runner may not be ad spending or polling; it is absentee ballot returns. According to the fantastic Pinellas County
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