The March 11 special election in Florida's 13th CD is technically still four weeks away, but judging by the volume of ads deluging the Tampa market, it feels like it's tomorrow. That's because absentee ballots - expected to account for most of all cast - were mailed to voters February 7. Smart advertisers know that for better or worse, the election will probably be decided this week.
The race between Democratic former state CFO Alex Sink and GOP former Rep. Bill Young aide David Jolly hasn't moved a lot in the last month - it's still a genuine Toss Up.
A February 4-9 poll of likely voters taken by Braun Research for the Tampa Bay Times found Sink leading Jolly 42 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian Lucas Overby taking four percent. But both parties' internal polls show the race much closer, and recent results in the San Diego mayoral race, the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial race, and others underscore that polls of off-year elections often overstate eventual Democratic performance.
According to the Tampa Bay Times, Sink and allied groups have
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