The recent speakership fracas, set off by just 3.6% of the Republican Conference overthrowing Kevin McCarthy, underscores why most Republicans are desperate to expand their majority next fall and gain some breathing room to govern. It's also supercharged House Democrats' confidence that they can flip the five seats they need to reclaim the chamber by convincing swing voters that "dysfunctional" Republicans can't be trusted with the keys to power.
By the numbers, Democrats have a strong opportunity to wrest at least five seats back: There are 18 Republicans sitting in districts President Joe Biden carried in 2020, compared to just five Democrats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. Eleven of those 18 “Biden Republicans” are in California and New York, states where Democrats underperformed in the midterms and where presidential-level turnout could help revert districts to their column. What’s more, 11 of those 18 Republicans are freshmen who have less established political brands.
Democratic strategists excitedly contend vulnerable Republicans' unanimous support for new Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-04) — as well as many of their votes for Rep. Jim
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