House Republicans enter the 2024 cycle with an infamously thin 222-213 majority and lots of questions about why they didn't perform better in 2022. But they have history on their side: despite the House flipping partisan control five times since 1994, it hasn't flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952 and hasn't flipped to the party occupying the White House since 1948, when Harry Truman barnstormed against a Republican "do nothing Congress."

Still, with 18 Republicans sitting in districts carried by President Biden in 2020 and just five Democrats sitting in districts carried by Donald Trump, there are more than enough vulnerable GOP seats on the table to keep the House in play for Democrats.

The most recent precedents for this cycle might be 1996 and 2012, when Presidents Clinton and Obama faced voters two years after the GOP retook the House. Despite a government shutdown in 1995 and a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, voters opted to preserve a divided government — with slightly reduced GOP House majorities. Of course, a true debt limit catastrophe could lead to a

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