If every lead in the six remaining uncalled House races holds, Republicans will wind up with a 222 to 213 seat majority—an exact mirror image of the slim majority Democrats hold now. The biggest remaining mysteries are California's Central Valley 13th and 22nd CDs, where Republicans John Duarte and David Valadao hold modest leads but Democrats hope late-counted Modesto and Bakersfield votes propel them ahead.
Yet we already know 2022 was a depolarizing election in at least one respect: the number of "crossover districts"—seats held by the party opposite the most recent presidential winner—is poised to rebound from the current total of 16 seats, an all-time low.
There are almost certain to be five "Trump Democrats": Reps. Mary Peltola (AK-AL), Jared Golden (ME-02), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08) are headed for wins and will be joined by upset winner Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03). All were able to portray their opponents as either out-of-touch plutocrats or MAGA extremists, and Peltola and Golden probably wouldn't have needed ranked-choice voting to prevail.
However, that's down from seven Trump Democrats currently, as
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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