A dearth of high-quality public polling has made House races tricky to forecast this year, relative to the last midterm in 2018. But a House control appears easily within the GOP's reach — with the biggest remaining mystery the size of that majority.
This cycle's House landscape is unusually uneven: in blue states, both parties' internal polling has found Democrats in double-digit Biden seats — including DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-17) and Katie Porter (CA-47) — in tight races defined by crime and inflation. Yet other Democrats in red and purple states and districts continue to hang tough, defying the president's low approval (in many cases, aided by polarizing GOP opponents).
The FiveThirtyEight average shows Republicans leading on the generic congressional ballot by a single point, and the final NBC News poll shows Democrats tying Republicans in voting enthusiasm at 73%, after a 78%-69% GOP edge two weeks ago.
But Democrats' biggest problem remains independents: by a 66%-28% margin in the NBC poll, they say cost of living is more important to their vote choice than abortion.
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