A big reason Republicans continue to face such long odds to take back the House in 2020 is their own exodus: they're defending three times as many open seats as Democrats. It's not uncommon for a party fresh out of the majority to see a wave of retirements. Still, the lopsided count also reflects Republican pessimism about retaking the majority and, to a lesser extent, term limits for GOP committee chair and ranking member posts.
With all but a handful of filing deadlines passed, 22 GOP members are retiring, five are seeking other office and one, Rep. Steve King (IA-04), just lost his primary. Additionally, there are four vacancies created by GOP resignations, three of which are likely to stay vacant through November. Three-quarters of these 32 seats are solidly red districts where allegiance to President Trump, or the president's blessing, is paramount.
But there are also some excellent Democratic pickup opportunities. Democrats are guaranteed to pick up the seats of retiring GOP Reps. George Holding (NC-02) and Mark Walker (NC-06) after state court-ordered redistricting made their districts unwinnable.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.