Two weeks out, Republicans have the momentum in the race for House control. Last week, the GOP regained the lead in FiveThirtyEight's generic ballot average for the first time since August amid worsening economic news. A new NBC News poll finds Republicans entering the homestretch with a 78%-69% edge in voting enthusiasm, half their 66%-48% edge pre-Dobbs but wider than their 69%-66% lead in September.
However, the House landscape is unusually bifurcated: in red and purple states, many Democrats are still running impressively ahead of President Biden's ratings and remain in strong contention. Meanwhile, some of Democrats' biggest headaches are in blue states like New York, Oregon, Connecticut and even Rhode Island, where they're desperately scrambling to save seats Biden carried comfortably in 2020.
That might sound counterintuitive, but it makes more sense upon closer inspection. In red and purple states, Democrats have highlighted threats to abortion access to boost their own's base turnout and paint Republicans as extreme. A mid-October Kaiser Health Tracking poll found 74% of Democratic-leaning voters in states with abortion bans said they were more motivated
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.