Three months ago, it looked like a category five hurricane was heading for President Biden and House Democrats clinging to a flimsy 221-214 seat edge. Today, not only has it weakened to a tropical depression, but GOP primaries have thrown Democrats enough sandbags to give them a plausible, if still unlikely, scenario to stave off a Republican majority.
Republicans don't need gale force winds at their back to reclaim the House; they only need to net a minuscule four seats. By our estimates, they are likely to pick up roughly three seats off the bat from redistricting alone, owing to New York's top court torpedoing Democrats' gerrymander and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signing a brutal GOP gerrymander into law. That was once a tiny component of Republicans' potential House gains. Now, it looks like a critical GOP insurance policy in a highly fluid political climate.
If forced, here's how we would roughly rank order the five factors driving this climate shift:
1. The Dobbs ruling helping Democrats match or even overtake the GOP base in enthusiasm 2. Steadily falling gas
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.