District-level polling conducted by party strategists continues to show softness for Democratic incumbents in places that haven't seen a competitive race in eons, and that includes freshman Rep. Frank Mrvan in Northwest Indiana's 1st CD. But in Minnesota's 1st CD, a uniquely strong Democratic candidate and a post-Dobbs energy jolt of Democratic enthusiasm could be making a special election in a Trump +10 seat closer than anticipated.
Most vulnerable Democrats have the luxury of beginning the fall with a strong personal brand after winning hard-fought 2018 and 2020 races and a big cash-on-hand advantage over their GOP rivals. But Mrvan has neither: the mortgage broker and son of a 40-year state senator skated to Congress in 2020 with longtime Rep. Pete Visclosky's help and remains shockingly undefined against well-funded GOP Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green.
Republicans haven't targeted this labor-heavy seat in eons, but House GOP operatives view Green, one of about 150 Black female commercial airline pilots in the country, as a rising star. In 2020, Joe Biden carried it just 53% to 45% (Mrvan prevailed 56%-40% without credible
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.