As the parties navigate primaries and begin polling and placing fall ad buys, Republicans' House advantage looks as robust as ever. For independent voters, inflation has become such a dominant concern that neither a Supreme Court ruling on Roe v. Wade nor January 6 hearings are likely to drastically alter the midterms' trajectory, and multiple district-level surveys show Democratic incumbents in perilous shape against unknown GOP challengers. Given that President Biden's job approval is underwater in dozens of districts he carried in 2020, any Democrat sitting in a single-digit Biden seat (or a Trump seat) is at severe risk and even a few in seats Biden carried by 10 to 15 points could lose — particularly in "orphan" states without competitive statewide races driving turnout. For many Democrats, going "scorched earth" against still-undefined GOP nominees looks like the only path to survival. This week, we're shifting ten races in Republicans' direction and two in Democrats' direction. Overall, there are now 35 Democratic-held seats in Toss Up or worse, and we're revising our fall House outlook to a net GOP gain
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