As the fall comes into focus, House Republicans find themselves in an awkward jam: President Trump continues to trail Joe Biden in dozens of suburban swing districts, including many held by the GOP. But Biden's lead isn't so large that Republican candidates can argue the race is over and that voters should support them as a "check" on Biden and Democrats lurching too far left.
This week, we're shifting our ratings in 15 more districts, including 11 moves towards Democrats and four towards Republicans. We're also revising our House outlook to a Democratic net gain between zero and ten seats. View our full ratings here.
CA-45: Katie Porter (D) - Likely D to Solid D GA-07: OPEN (Woodall) (R) - Toss Up to Lean D IL-06: Sean Casten (D) - Likely D to Solid D IL-13: Rodney Davis (R) - Toss Up to Lean R IL-14: Lauren Underwood (D) - Lean D to Likely D MN-08: Pete Stauber (R) - Likely R to Solid R NH-01: Chris Pappas (D) - Lean D to Likely D NJ-02: Jeff
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.