It's going to take more time to gauge whether the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade will meaningfully narrow Republicans' enthusiasm advantage. But early district-level polling and primary turnout continues to paint a bleak picture for House Democrats, with President Biden's approval badly underwater in competitive seats and surprising opportunities for the GOP in places like Rhode Island and California's Central Valley.
This week we're shifting six races in Republicans' direction and two in Democrats' direction. There are now 38 Democratic-held seats in Toss Up or worse compared to 10 for the GOP. We're maintaining our fall outlook of a GOP net gain of between 20 and 35 seats.
CA-09: Josh Harder (D) - San Joaquin County: Stockton, Tracy Lean Democrat. After Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney announced his retirement, Harder took his $6.7 million warchest north to this Stockton seat, which at Biden +13 is ten points bluer than his current Modesto seat. But he's only represented 27 percent of this seat before (according to number crunching by DailyKos Elections), and in the June
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