President Biden's approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising "reach" opportunities.
This week, we're moving eight Democratic-held seats into more competitive categories. With these changes, there are 27 Democratic seats in Toss Up or worse, and that list is certain to grow longer when Florida and New Hampshire finalize their lines. By contrast, there are only 12 GOP-held seats in Toss Up or worse - all of which are due to redistricting, not atmospheric factors. Republicans need to net just five seats to regain the House.
IN-01: Mrvan (D) - Likely D to Lean D NV-03: Lee (D) - Lean D to Toss Up NV-04: Horsford (D) - Lean D to Toss Up NJ-03: Kim (D) - Solid D to Likely
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.