Republican strategists express optimism that the Inflation Reduction Act and President Biden's student loan forgiveness plan will help them shift the spotlight away from abortion and Donald Trump and back onto Democrats' spending measures and inflation. But as we wrote in our new House overview, a post-Dobbs spike in Democratic voter enthusiasm could rein in GOP gains, allowing Democrats in bluer seats to breathe a bit easier. This week, we're moving four suburban Democratic-held seats into safer categories. Notably, we've shifted Rep. Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) and New York's open 3rd CD from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. We're also moving our November rating for Alaska's At Large CD from Likely Republican to Toss Up on the heels of Democrat Mary Peltola's ranked-choice upset of Republican Sarah Palin in the August 16 special election.

Jump to a race:

AK-AL: Peltola - Likely R to Toss Up AZ-04: Stanton - Lean D to Likely D MD-06: Trone - Lean D to Likely D NY-03: OPEN - Toss Up to Lean D VA-07: Spanberger - Toss Up to Lean D

In a major

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