As primary season kicks into high gear, both parties are assessing which House races are “for real” and which are unlikely to materialize into competitive contests. This week, we’re moving three races out of the Likely Democrat column: Minnesota’s swingy 2nd District, held by Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, moves to Lean Democrat. Meanwhile, the bluer open seats held by Democratic Reps. Andy Kim (NJ-03) and Jennifer Wexton (VA-10) move to Solid Democrat.

In addition, the Florida Supreme Court’s refusal to adjudicate a racial gerrymandering challenge to the Sunshine State’s congressional map before the primary filing period opens moves the Jacksonville area 5th District from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

FL-05: John Rutherford (R) - Parts of Jacksonville, Jacksonville Beach, St. AugustineSolid Republican. In February, Florida’s conservative-dominated Supreme Court declined a request by Democratic-backed plaintiffs to fast-track a challenge to the congressional map Gov. Ron DeSantis rammed through the legislature in 2022, making it virtually certain the map will remain in place for the 2024 cycle. The candidate filing period is slated to open on April 22.

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