As both parties begin to blitz the competitive battleground with ads, Republicans continue to be the party playing more offense, linking Democratic incumbents to "wasteful spending" and more IRS funding in the just-passed reconciliation bill. But Democrats continue to poll two to three points better than earlier this year in most districts, giving incumbents in marginally blue districts some cushion and putting a handful more GOP seats in play.

This week, we're moving three ratings in the southwest: Scottsdale GOP Rep. David Schweikert (AZ-01) moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up and Northern Arizona Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran (AZ-02) moves from Likely to Lean Republican. Additionally, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Still, Republicans would need to win just six of the 31 seats in our Toss Up column to win the majority.

Rating Changes

AZ-01: Schweikert — Lean R to Toss Up AZ-02: O'Halleran — Likely R to Lean R TX-28: Cuellar — Toss Up to Lean D

In 2020, Schweikert scraped by just 52%-48% after Democrats hammered him as "shady" over his

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