As the ad wars intensify, polling across the House battlefield tells a remarkably consistent story: although some GOP voters may be "coming home," President Trump is still running five to ten points behind his 2016 margins against Hillary Clinton in both parties' surveys — and that's making life difficult for many GOP challengers and incumbents. This week, we're shifting seven ratings, including five in Democrats' direction.

Rating Changes

AR-02: Hill — Likely R to Lean R ME-02: Golden — Lean D to Likely D NJ-03: Kim — Toss Up to Lean D NY-19: Delgado —Lean D to Likely D PA-17: Lamb — Likely D to Lean D SC-01: Cunningham —Toss Up to Lean D WI-03: Kind — Likely D to Lean D

Updated Bottom Lines

AR-02: French Hill (R) - Central: Little Rock Lean Republican. Initially, Democratic state Sen. Joyce Elliott's campaign looked symbolic, considering she lost this seat by 20 points in 2010 and GOP Rep. French Hill survived the 2018 "blue wave" by six points. But an early September Hendrix College poll shows Hill ahead just 48 percent

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