A pattern has begun to emerge: in surveys by both parties, House Democrats' polling numbers are holding up surprisingly well in states with contentious statewide races driving turnout, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to name a few. Meanwhile, Republicans are encouraged by House numbers they're seeing in blue-dominated states, including New York, Oregon and even Rhode Island. This week, seven of our ten rating changes favor Democrats, including Rep. Susan Wild (PA-07) from Lean Republican to Toss Up and Reps. Dan Kildee (MI-08) and Steven Horsford (NV-04) from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. However, the Rio Grande Valley of Texas remains a trouble spot for Democrats: both parties now believe the open 15th CD will flip red and that Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is at high risk in the new 34th CD. Historically, it's rare that so many race ratings shift towards the president's party in a midterm year. But, keep in mind: because of redistricting, we didn't issue initial ratings for most seats until President Biden and Democrats were at something of a low point. Now
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.