House Republicans' midterm structural advantages are conspicuous as ever: President Biden's approval rating is at 38%, and the GOP's leading Super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, ended June with $130 million on hand to the Democratic House Majority PAC's $60 million. Come the fall, Republicans will be leveraging that to flood the airwaves, tying every Democratic incumbent to historic 9.1% "Bidenflation" and crime.

But the last few weeks have called into question the size of the impending "red wave." Not only has the Dobbs decision infuriated and energized Democrats, but Democrats continue to outpoll Biden's approval on both the generic ballot and in polls of individual races.

In a special election in Nebraska's 1st CD on June 28, Democrat Patty Pansing Brooks came within a surprising six points of Republican Mike Flood in a rural seat that had voted for Trump by 11 points in 2020. It's just one positive data point for Democrats, but the timing — just four days after the Dobbs decision was issued — couldn't be ignored. Now, with gas prices ebbing, some Democrats wonder if

More from the Cook Political Report

Amy FP
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo
CPR Archives
User photo