How time flies: 2015 marks the halfway point between the last Census (April 1, 2010) and the next one. A common private refrain among House Democrats is that the party won't really have a chance to regain the majority until the current "gerrymandered" lines drawn by the GOP in 2010 are somehow untangled in the next round of redistricting. But a very early look at the reapportionment and redistricting landscape should remind Democrats it's not that simple. The newest population estimates continue to show slower growth rates across the Rust Belt and industrial northeast and faster migration to the south and west, particularly Texas and Florida. In fact, according to the newest Census state-by-state population estimates, the "Snowbird Moment" arrived: 2014 was finally the year Florida overtook New York in population. In late December, using the Census's new data, reapportionment expert Kim Brace of Election Data Services issued a thorough report on which states are likely to gain and lose seats in the House after 2020. While urging caution, Brace came up with his estimates by assuming each state's rate
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