House Editor David Wasserman explains why four districts are moving into closer competition at the outset of 2007’s fourth quarter. In Indiana, the insistence of Rep. Julia Carson (D-IN-07) on seeking reelection and the entry of former GOP Rep. Mike Sodrel into the race against Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN-09) complicate Democrats’ efforts to hold a majority of the Hoosier delegation beyond 2008. Republicans, however, have their work cut out for them in the new open seat race to replace Senate aspirant Heather Wilson (R-NM-01), and must keep an eye on a strong Democratic challenger to veteran Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ-03).

Ratings Changes:

IN-07 Carson – Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic

IN-09 Hill – Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic

NJ-03 Saxton – Solid Republican to Likely Republican

NM-01 OPEN (Wilson) – Lean Republican to Toss-Up

IN-07: Carson

Ailing Democratic Rep. Julia Carson’s insistence on running for a seventh term from this Indianapolis-based district in 2008 has frustrated Democrats who believe the party’s chances of holding onto the seat would improve if she were absent

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