We've spent a lot of time this cycle talking about why Republicans' modest gains from redistricting are a valuable "insurance policy" in the fluid 2022 House race. But an arguably bigger GOP advantage in the homestretch is the high number of vulnerable Democratic open seats — a legacy of the bleak outlook in late 2021 that prompted many Democrats in swing seats to head for the exits. It's almost always easier to pick up an open seat than defeat an incumbent — not just because incumbents have more well-established personal brands, but because open seats usually feature a more level financial playing field. At the candidate level, most Democratic incumbents have vastly outspent GOP challengers because they were able to stockpile cash all year while their Republican opponents first had to get past expensive primaries, leaving them strapped for cash. For example, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) has outspent Republican Yesli Vega $3.5 million to $1.4 million so far, according to AdImpact. But at the committee and Super PAC level, the wide expectation of a GOP majority has allowed Kevin
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.